Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-xtgtn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T01:44:14.226Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The epidemiology of varicella–zoster virus infections: the influence of varicella on the prevalence of herpes zoster

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 May 2009

G. P. Garnett  and
B. T. Grenfell
G. P. Garnett
Affiliation:
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, Sheffield University
B. T. Grenfell
Affiliation:
Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Cambridge CB2 3EJ
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

This paper uses mathematical models and data analysis to examine the epidemiological implications of possible immunologically mediated links between patterns of varicella and herpes-zoster incidence in human communities. A review of previously published reports does not clarify whether or not there is a relationship between the incidence of varicella and the incidence of zoster. However, new analysis of data collected by the Royal College of General Practitioners provides indirect evidence for the hypothesis that a high intensity of varicella transmission suppresses viral reactivation. The significance of this finding for proposed varicella vaccination campaigns is explored by a review of published data on the use of the vaccine. No significant difference is shown to exist between the risk of zoster caused by the vaccine and the wild virus. A mathematical model is then developed to take into consideration the influence of the prevalence of varicella on viral reactivation and the impact of vaccination with attenuated virus, which may be able to recrudesce. Under some conditions, mass application of such vaccines may have the impact of increasing zoster incidence. The results presented here indicate that, before starting any vaccination programme against varicella, its consequences need to be assessed in much more depth.

Type
Research Article
Information
Epidemiology & Infection , Volume 108 , Issue 3 , June 1992 , pp. 513 - 528
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1992

References

REFERENCES

1.Just, M, Berger, R, Luescher, D. Live varicella vaccine in healthy individuals. Postgrad Med J 1985; 61 (suppl 4): 129–32.Google Scholar
2.Plotkin, SA. Varicella vaccine: a point of decision. Pediatrics 1986; 78: 705–7.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
3.McLean, G. Compulsory vaccination. Aust Fam Phys 1988; 17: 12.Google Scholar
4.Starr, SE. Status of varicella vaccine for healthy children. Pediatrics 1989; 84: 1097–9.Google Scholar
5.Garnett, GP, Grenfell, BT. The epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus: a mathematical model. Epidemiol Infect 1992; 108: 495–511.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
6.Preblud, SR, Orenstein, WA, Bart, KJ. Varicella: clinical manifestations, epidemiology and health impact in children. Pediat Infect Dis 1984; 3: 505–9.Google Scholar
7.London, WP, Yorke, JA. Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variation in contact rates. Am J Epidemiol 1973; 98: 453–68.Google Scholar
8.Olsen, LF, Truty, GL, Schaffer, WM. Oscillations and chaos in epidemics: a nonlinear dynamic study of six childhood diseases in Copenhagen. Denmark. Theoret Pop Biol 1988; 33: 344–70.Google Scholar
9.Gordon, JE.Chickenpox: An epidemiological review. Am J Med Sci 1962; 244: 362–85.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
10.Palmer, SR, Caul, EO, Donald, DEK, Wantes, W, Tillett, H. An outbreak of shingles. Lancet 1985; ii: 1108–10.Google Scholar
11.Pallett, AP, Nicholls, MWN. Varicella-zoster: reactivation or reinfection? Lancet 1986; i: 160.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
12.Wilson, JB. Thirty-one years of herpes-zoster in a rural practice. Br Med J 1986; 293: 1349–51.Google Scholar
13.Sraus, SE, Ostrove, JM, Ichauspe, G. et al. Varicella-zoster virus infections. Biology, natural history, treatment and prevention. Ann Intern Med 1988; 108: 221–37.Google Scholar
14.McNamara, MP, LaCrosse, S, Piering, WF, Rytel, MW. Exogenous reinfection with varicella–zoster virus. New Eng J Med 1987; 317: 511.Google Scholar
15.Hope-Simpson, RE. The nature of herpes-zoster: a long-term study and a new hypothesis. Proc Roy Soc Med 1965; 58: 9–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
16.Arvin, AM, Celine, MK, Wittek, AE. Immunologic evidence of reinfection with varicella-zoster virus. J Infect Dis 1983; 148: 200–5.Google Scholar
17.Hellgren, L, Hersle, K. A statistical and clinical study of herpes-zoster. Geront Clin 1966; 8: 70–6.Google Scholar
18.Ikada, J, Kayami, K, Yamamoto, Y. Varicella may protect against zoster. Lancet 1973; ii: 1276.Google Scholar
19.McGregor, RM. Herpes-zoster, chickenpox and cancer in general practice. Br Med J 1957; i: 84–7.Google Scholar
20.Shargorodskaya, VA, Baronin, AV. Some epidemiological peculiarities of the chickenpox and herpes-zoster spread. Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol 1978; 11: 121–4.Google Scholar
21.Stojie, P. Neke epideioloske karakteristike varicele. Vojnosanit Pregl 1982; 39: 194–7.Google Scholar
22.Fleming, DM, Norbury, CA, Crombie, DL. Annual and seasonal variation in the incidence of common diseases. Twenty-three years experience of the Weekly Returns Service of the Royal College of General Practitioners. Occasional paper. The Royal College of General Practitioners 1991; 53: 5–7.Google Scholar
23.Joseph, CA, Noah, ND. Epidemiology of chickenpox in England and Wales, 1967–1985. Br Med J 1988; 296: 673–6.Google Scholar
24.Anderson, RM, Grenfell, BT, May, RM. Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious disease and the impact of vaccination: time series analysis. J Hyg 1984; 96: 305–33.Google Scholar
25.Chatfield, C. The analysis of time series theory and practice. London: Chapman and Hall, 1989.Google Scholar
26.Department of Education and Science. Statistics of schools in England – January 1986. Statistical Bulletin, London: Elizabeth House, 1987.Google Scholar
27.Andre, FE. Worldwide experience with the Oka-strain live varicella vaccine. Postgrad Med J 1985; 61 (suppl 4): 113–20.Google Scholar
28.Takahashi, M, Kamiya, H, Baba, K, Asano, Y, Ozaki, T, Horiuchi, K. Clinical experience with Oka live varicella vaccine in Japan. Postgrad Med J 1985; 61 (suppl 4): 61–7.Google ScholarPubMed
29.Englund, JA, Suarez, CS, Kelly, J, Tate, DY, Balfour, HH. Placebo-controlled trial of varicella vaccine given with or after measles–mumps–rubella vaccine. J Pediatr 1989; 114: 37–44.Google Scholar
30.Brunell, PA, Taylor-Wiedeman, J, Geiser, CF, Frierson, L, Lydick, E. Risk of herpes-zoster in children with leukemia: varicella vaccine compared with history of chickenpox. Pediatrics 1986; 77: 53–6.Google Scholar
31.Lawrence, R, Gershon, AA, Holzman, R et al. , The risk of zoster after varicella vaccination in children with leukemia. N Engl J Med 1988; 302: 450–3.Google Scholar
32.Yabuuchi, H, Baba, K, Tsuda, N et al. , A live varicella vaccine in a pediatric community. Biken J 1984; 27: 43–9.Google Scholar
33.Takahashi, M. Chickenpox virus. Adv in Vir Res 1983; 28: 285–348.Google Scholar
34.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Age-related changes in the rate of disease transmission: implications for the design of vaccination programmes. J Hyg 1985; 94: 365–436.Google Scholar
35.Grenfell, BT, Anderson, RM. Pertussis in England and Wales: An investigation of transmission dynamics and control by mass vaccination. Proc R Soc Lond 1989; B236: 213–52.Google Scholar
36.Anderson, RM, May, RM. Vaccination and herd immunity to infectious disease. Nature 1985; 318: 323–9.Google Scholar
37.Hope-Simpson, RE. Infectiousness of communicable diseases in the household. Lancet 1952; ii: 1299.Google Scholar
38.Davie, CE, Hutt, SJ, Vincent, E, Mason, M. The young child in the home. Windsor: Nfer-Nelson, 1984.Google Scholar
39.Burke, BL, Steele, RW, Beard, OW, Wood, JS, Cain, TD, Marmer, DJ. Immune responses to varicella-zoster in the aged. Arch Intern Med 1982; 142: 291–3.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
40.Bannister, P, Crosse, B. Severe herpes-zoster infection in the United Kingdom: experience in a regional infectious disease unit. J Roy Soc Med 1989; 82: 145–6.Google Scholar
41.Preblud, SR, Orenstein, WA, Kaplan, JP, Bart, KJ, Hinman, AR. A benefit-cost analysis of a childhood varicella vaccine programme. Postgrad Med J 1985; 61 (suppl. 4): 17–22.Google Scholar
42.Preblud, SR. Age specific risks of varicella complications. Pediatrics 1981; 68: 14–7.Google Scholar