Difference in predicted and observed rates of planned hospital care from 23 March to 31 December 2020 among pupils in school years 7–11, by type of statutory support or service
| Children (n) | Instances of planned hospital care (n) | Rate per 1000 child-years | |||||||
| Predicted | Observed | Deficit | % change (95% CI) | Predicted | Observed | Difference* | % change (95% CI) | ||
| Outpatient attendances | |||||||||
| Overall | 513 683 | 2 014 154 | 1 459 142 | −555 012 | −27.5 (−27.4 to −27.7) | 864 | 626 | −238 | −27.5 (−27.4 to −27.7) |
| No support/services | 352 958 | 1 345 303 | 928 549 | −416 754 | −31.0 (−30.8 to −31.1) | 726 | 501 | −225 | −31.0 (−30.8 to −31.1) |
| Any support/services | 160 725 | 668 851 | 530 593 | −138 258 | −20.7 (−20.4 to −20.9) | 1400 | 1110 | −290 | −20.7 (−20.4 to −20.9) |
| SEN only | 114 244 | 440 318 | 366 207 | −74 111 | −16.8 (−16.5 to −17.1) | 1334 | 1110 | −224 | −16.8 (−16.5 to −17.1) |
| CSC only | 17 915 | 79 370 | 50 674 | −28 696 | −36.2 (−35.5 to −36.9) | 935 | 597 | −338 | −36.2 (−35.5 to −36.9) |
| Both SEN and CSC | 28 566 | 149 163 | 113 712 | −35 451 | −23.8 (−23.3 to −24.3) | 2371 | 1808 | −563 | −23.7 (−23.2 to −24.2) |
| Planned admissions | |||||||||
| Overall | 36 617 | 115 895 | 69 371 | −46 524 | −40.1 (−39.6 to −40.7) | 50 | 30 | −20 | −40.1 (−39.6 to −40.7) |
| No support/services | 24 294 | 73 379 | 43 867 | −29 512 | −40.2 (−39.5 to −40.9) | 40 | 24 | −16 | −40.4 (−39.7 to −41.1) |
| Any support/services | 12 323 | 42 516 | 25 504 | −17 012 | −40.0 (−39.1 to −41.0) | 89 | 53 | −36 | −40.5 (−39.6 to −41.5) |
| SEN only | 8357 | 27 057 | 17 410 | −9647 | −35.7 (−34.5 to −36.9) | 82 | 53 | −29 | −35.4 (−34.2 to −36.6) |
| CSC only | 1195 | 4185 | 2060 | −2125 | −50.8 (−47.8 to −53.9) | 49 | 24 | −25 | −50.7 (−47.7 to −53.8) |
| Both SEN and CSC | 2771 | 11 274 | 6034 | −5240 | −46.5 (−44.6 to −48.3) | 179 | 96 | −83 | −46.3 (−44.4 to −48.1) |
Predicted rates were based on Poisson models estimating the number of outpatient attendances/planned admissions that would have occurred in 2020 if the pandemic had not happened, stratified by type of statutory support or service. These models included a linear effect of time (year) to account for ongoing time trends between 2015 and 2019 and a robust sandwich variance estimator. No other covariates were included in the models.
*This column highlights the primary outcome of the analysis: the absolute differences between predicted and observed rates according to vulnerability status, as presented in figure 2.
CSC, children’s social care services; SEN, special educational needs support.