A. Presentations | Observed | Estimated had there not been a pandemic | Absolute difference | Relative difference | |||
Pandemic (year 5) | Percentage | Pandemic (year 5) | Percentage | Mean | 95% CI | ||
All | 23 360 | 100.0 | 37 740 | 100.0 | −14 380 | −12 784 to −15 977 | |
Males | 11 623 | 49.8 | 19 581 | 51.9 | −7958 | −7062 to −8855 | |
Females | 11 725 | 50.2 | 18 318 | 48.5 | −6593 | −5815 to −7371 | |
0 to 4 years | 7680 | 32.9 | 13 100 | 34.7 | −5420 | −4749 to −6092 | |
five to 10 years | 3483 | 14.9 | 6282 | 16.6 | −2799 | −2435 to −3163 | |
eleven to 17 years | 4718 | 20.2 | 7859 | 20.8 | −3141 | −2638 to −3643 | |
18 to 24 years | 7479 | 32.0 | 11 337 | 30.0 | −3858 | −3261 to −4456 | |
White ethnicity | 18 822 | 80.6 | 30 546 | 80.9 | −11 725 | −10 438 to −13 012 | |
Non-white ethnicity | 2597 | 11.1 | 4384 | 11.6 | −1690 | −1424 to −1957 | |
Low deprivation | 6691 | 28.6 | 11 583 | 30.7 | −4892 | −4416 to −5367 | |
Moderate deprivation | 9026 | 38.6 | 14 388 | 38.1 | −5362 | −4746 to −5979 | |
High deprivation | 7538 | 32.3 | 12 495 | 33.1 | −4957 | −4358 to −5556 | |
Respiratory infections | 1872 | 8.0 | 4624 | 12.3 | −2752 | −2150 to −3354 | |
Asthma/wheeze | 579 | 2.5% | 1313 | 3.5 | −737 | −600 to −869 | |
Gastrointestinal infections | 473 | 3.3 | 1198 | 3.2 | −768 | −656 to −880 | |
Surgical | 1541 | 6.6 | 1535 | 4.1 | 6 | 167 to −156 | |
Mental health | 1441 | 6.2 | 2066 | 5.5 | −625 | −495 to −754 | |
Trauma | 3523 | 16.7 | 5281 | 14.0 | −1758 | −1269 to −2247 | |
Burns/scalds | 379 | 1.6 | 390 | 1.0 | −11 | 45 to −68 | |
Allergy | 219 | 0.9 | 262 | 0.7 | −43 | 3 to −89 |
B. Admissions | Observed | Estimated had there not been a pandemic | Absolute difference | Relative difference | |||
Pandemic (Year 5) | Percentage | Pandemic (year 5) | Percentage | Mean | 95% CI | ||
All | 5293 | 100.0 | 6911 | 100.0 | −1618 | −1203 to −2033 | |
Males | 2447 | 47.3 | 3510 | 50.8 | −1063 | −853 to −1273 | |
Females | 2842 | 52.7 | 3678 | 53.2 | −836 | −595 to −1078 | |
0–4 years | 1146 | 26.1 | 1566 | 22.7 | −420 | −277 to −562 | |
5–10 years | 501 | 10.0 | 525 | 7.6 | −24 | 45 to −93 | |
11–17 years | 1145 | 17.9 | 1195 | 17.3 | −50 | 88 to −187 | |
18–24 years | 2501 | 46.1 | 3606 | 52.2 | −1105 | −868 to −1341 | |
White ethnicity | 4260 | 88.2 | 5924 | 85.7 | −1664 | −1317 to −2012 | |
Non-white ethnicity | 567 | 11.8 | 797 | 11.5 | −218 | −142 to −294 | |
Low deprivation | 1518 | 27.8 | 1597 | 23.1 | −79 | 92 to −250 | |
Moderate deprivation | 2045 | 37.4 | 2981 | 43.1 | −936 | −756 to −1116 | |
High deprivation | 1694 | 34.8 | 2893 | 41.9 | −1200 | −1062 to −1338 | |
Respiratory infections | 359 | 6.8 | 913 | 13.2 | −554 | −420 to −689 | |
Asthma/wheeze | 314 | 5.9 | 547 | 7.9 | −233 | −162 to −305 | |
Gastrointestinal infections | 69 | 1.3 | – | – | |||
Surgical | 764 | 14.4 | 659 | 9.5 | −96 | 194 to −1 | |
Mental health | 771 | 14.6 | 1078 | 15.6 | −307 | −214 to −400 | |
Trauma | 355 | 6.7 | 643 | 9.3 | −288 | −230 to −346 | |
Burns/scalds | 8 | 0.2 | – | – | |||
Allergy | 59 | 1.1 | – | – |
Data are counts (percentages). Differences represent absolute (table) and relative (figure) differences (95% CIs) between estimated presentations or admissions had there not been a pandemic and observed presentations or admissions. Estimates are based on the time series analysis data from years 1–4. Year 5: 13 March 2020–25 February 2021 (50 weeks). Some admission estimates missing as there were insufficient admission each week to generate a time series equation. Time series models are presented in online supplemental figure S2–S11, S20–S24.