Table 2

Relative risk (RR) of death by calendar month, age, sex, deprivation, region and ethnicity; with estimates of RR between years and the number of excess deaths calculated

MeasureComparison of deaths between 2019 and 2020 (April–March)pinteraction
20192020Excess deathsRRP value
All deaths34233067−356 (−514 to −198)0.90 (0.85 to 0.94)<0.001
Stratified by month of death0.181
April2622686 (−39 to 51)1.02 (0.86 to 1.21)0.794
May270269−1 (−47 to 45)1.00 (0.84 to 1.18)0.966
June238234−4 (−47 to 39)0.98 (0.82 to 1.18)0.854
July2612632 (−43 to 47)1.01 (0.85 to 1.20)0.930
August308263−45 (−92 to 2)0.85 (0.72 to 1.01)0.060
September275245−30 (−75 to 15)0.89 (0.75 to 1.06)0.189
October294221−73 (−117 to −29)0.75 (0.63 to 0.90)0.001
November318245−73 (−120 to −26)0.77 (0.65 to 0.91)0.002
December333267−66 (−114 to −18)0.80 (0.68 to 0.94)0.007
January315283−32 (−80 to 16)0.90 (0.77 to 1.05)0.191
February256237−19 (−63 to 25)0.93 (0.78 to 1.10)0.392
March293272−21 (−68 to 26)0.93 (0.79 to 1.09)0.377
Stratified by age<0.001
Less than 1 year21551993−162 (−288 to −36)0.92 (0.87 to 0.98)0.012
1–4 years394264−130 (−180 to −80)0.67 (0.57 to 0.78)<0.001
5–9 years243197−46 (−87 to −5)0.81 (0.67 to 0.98)0.029
10–14 years289274−15 (−62 to 32)0.95 (0.80 to 1.12)0.527
15–17 years342339−3 (−54 to 48)0.99 (0.85 to 1.15)0.908
Stratified by sex0.926
Male19011683−218 (−335 to −101)0.89 (0.83 to 0.95)<0.001
Female14661304−162 (−265 to −59)0.89 (0.83 to 0.96)0.002
Stratified by deprivation measure*0.912
1/211341012−122 (−213 to −31)0.89 (0.82 to 0.97)0.008
3/4764692−72 (−147 to 3)0.91 (0.82 to 1.00)0.059
5/6616529−87 (−153 to −21)0.86 (0.76 to 0.96)0.010
7/8476413−63 (−121 to −5)0.87 (0.76 to 0.99)0.035
9/10364339−25 (−77 to 27)0.93 (0.80 to 1.08)0.346
Stratified by region0.885
East Midlands283251−32 (−77 to 13)0.89 (0.75 to 1.05)0.166
East of England339278−61 (−110 to −12)0.82 (0.70 to 0.96)0.014
London609563−46 (−113 to 21)0.92 (0.82 to 1.04)0.179
North East154138−16 (−49 to 17)0.90 (0.71 to 1.13)0.349
North West500431−69 (−129 to −9)0.86 (0.76 to 0.98)0.024
South East468403−65 (−123 to −7)0.86 (0.75 to 0.98)0.028
South West252235−17 (−60 to 26)0.93 (0.78 to 1.11)0.441
West Midlands451436−15 (−73 to 43)0.97 (0.85 to 1.10)0.615
Yorkshire and Humber367332−35 (−87 to 17)0.90 (0.78 to 1.05)0.186
Stratified by ethnic group0.153
Asian or Asian British557462−95 (−158 to −32)0.83 (0.73 to 0.94)0.003
Black or black British252247−5 (−49 to 39)0.98 (0.82 to 1.17)0.823
Mixed188156−32 (−68 to 4)0.83 (0.67 to 1.03)0.085
Other9465−29 (−54 to −4)0.69 (0.50 to 0.95)0.022
White18551721−134 (−251 to −17)0.93 (0.87 to 0.99)0.025
  • Numbers are frequency counts or RR plus 95% CI as appropriate.

  • RR derived from Negative Binomial Model (all alpha values approximating to 0).

  • Bolded rows represent periods of national lockdown.

  • Some demographic data missing, so denominators may vary between analyses.

  • *Level one is most deprived area, 10 is least deprived.