Table 1

Model parameters

ParameterValue GA 23–27 weeks (95% CI; distribution)Value GA 28–32 weeks (95% CI; distribution)Source
Effect of AM-PICC on the probability of LOI
Relative risk of AM-PICC vs S-PICC1.06 (0.70 to 1.60; lognormal)PREVAIL trial (subgroup of infants born ≤32 weeks GA).
Effect of LOI on NDI and death
Relative risk of the effect of LOI on death at 6 months1 (fixed)Assumed that LOI has no effect on death at 6 months in the base case.
OR for the effect of LOI on NDI at 2 years of age1.51 (1.33 to 1.70; lognormal)Meta-analysis of Stoll et al2 and Schlapbach et al.24
OR for the effect of LOI on death at 2 years of age2.74 (1.43 to 5.24; lognormal)Meta-analysis of Schlapbach et al24 and Bassler et al.25
Probabilities using S-PICC
Probability of LOI0.14 (0.09 to 0.20; beta)0.04 (0.02 to 0.08; beta)PREVAIL trial (subgroup of infants born ≤32 weeks GA).
Probability of death between PICC insertion and 6 months0.20 (0.16 to 0.23; beta)0.03 (0.03 to 0.04; beta)Santhakumaran et al.13
Probability of death between 6 months and 2 years0.02 (0.01 to 0.03; beta)0.01 (0.00 to 0.02; beta)Mangham et al.12 Estimates refer to a population of infants with different LOI status and applied to the non-infected infants (see online supplementary material 1).
Probability of developing NDI0.45 (0.42 to 0.49; dirichlet)0.26 (0.25 to 0.28; dirichlet)Mangham et al.12 Estimates refer to a population of infants with different LOI status and applied to the non-infected infants.
Distribution by NDI levels, given that NDI occurred
Mild NDI0.54 (0.51 to 0.58; dirichlet)0.73 (0.70 to 0.76; dirichlet)Mangham et al12 assumed to be similar for both sepsis and non-sepsis groups. Severe NDI calculated as the complement.
Moderate NDI0.29 (0.28 to 0.30; dirichlet)0.16 (0.15 to 0.17; dirichlet)
Health-related quality of life (to calculate QALYs)
No NDI0.96 (0.94 to 0.97; beta)Petrou et al29
Mild NDI decrement0.18 (0.14 to 0.31; gamma)Petrou et al29
Moderate NDI decrement0.30 (0.24 to 0.46; gamma)Petrou et al29
Severe NDI decrement0.56 (0.44 to 0.77; gamma)Petrou et al29
Costs
Difference in cost between PICCs (AM-PICC vs S-PICC)£53.70Personal communication from the manufacturer
Healthcare costs between PICC insertion and 6 months£105 873.47 (101 444.99 to 110 495.27; gamma)£62 255.37 (54 711.87 to 70 838.93; gamma)PREVAIL trial and linked datasets (NNRD, PICANet, HES).
Healthcare costs between 6 months and 2 years£5989.17 (5989.14 to 5994.98)£3026.17 (3026.43 to 3028.73)NHS Reference Cost 15/1627 derived from HES inpatient, A&E and outpatient data.
Annual costs between age 2 and 10 years
No NDI£388 (£285 to £509; gamma)Petrou et al28 ; inflated to 2016
Mild NDI£753 (£584 to £946; gamma)Petrou et al28; inflated to 2016
Moderate NDI£814 (£560 to £1063; gamma)Petrou et al28; inflated to 2016
Severe NDI£1487 (£1096 to £1943; gamma)Petrou et al28; inflated to 2016
Annual costs after age 11 years
No NDI£686 (£440 to £993; gamma)Petrou et al29: inflated to 2016
Mild NDI£987 (£782 to £1222; gamma)Petrou et al29 ; inflated to 2016
Moderate NDI£1252 (£933 to 1624; gamma)Petrou et al29 ; inflated to 2016
Severe NDI£1976 (£1411 to £2648; gamma)Petrou et al29 ; inflated to 2016
  • GA, gestational age; HES, Hospital Episode Statistics; LOI, late-onset infection; NDI, neurodevelopmental impairment; NHS, National Health Service; NNRD, National Neonatal Research Database; PICANet, Paediatric Intensive Care Network; PICC, peripherally inserted central catheter; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.