Total scores analysed (complete and imputed with ‘default to normal’ method) | |||||

Scores | AUC (95% CI) | Probability threshold (%)* | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |

≤24 hours (n=4693 observations; call to physician=494 (11%) observations) | |||||

PAWS† | 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89) | 5.9 | 49 | 17 | 98 |

PEWS‡ | 0.87 (0.86 to 0.89) | 6.0 | 48 | 17 | 98 |

Bedside PEWS§ | 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89) | 5.2 | 48 | 16 | 98 |

≤36 hours (n=5892 observations; call to physician=559 (9%) observations) | |||||

PAWS† | 0.90 (0.88 to 0.91) | 7.3 | 64 | 20 | 98 |

PEWS‡ | 0.89 (0.88 to 0.91) | 6.7 | 55 | 17 | 98 |

Bedside PEWS§ | 0.89 (0.87 to 0.91) | 6.2 | 58 | 17 | 98 |

≤48 hours (n=7196 observations; call to physician=629 (9%) observations) | |||||

PAWS† | 0.91 (0.90 to 0.92) | 7.5 | 69 | 22 | 99 |

PEWS‡ | 0.91 (0.89 to 0.92) | 7.4 | 71 | 23 | 99 |

Bedside PEWS§ | 0.91 (0.89 to 0.92) | 6.7 | 70 | 21 | 99 |

≤6 day (n=10 152 observations; call to physician=749 (7%) observations) | |||||

PAWS† | 0.91 (0.90 to 0.92) | 7.1 | 77 | 23 | 99 |

PEWS‡ | 0.91 (0.90 to 0.92) | 7.1 | 76 | 23 | 99 |

Bedside PEWS§ | 0.91 (0.90 to 0.92) | 6.1 | 75 | 21 | 99 |

If PAWS at admission=3, time=48 hours, PAWS (H48)=4.

Predictive equation for

*call to physician:*Logit=−2.867+0.315×(4)−0.072×(3)−0.016×(48)=−2.591.Probability of call to physician=1/(1+exp(−Logit)=7.0%.

This probability is <7.5% (probability threshold for PAWS from admission to 48 hours): so nurse must not call physician.

↵*Probability threshold maximising specificity for sensitivity fixed at 90%: probability computed from the general linear mixed model included the following effects: the score at time

*t*, the score at admission and the time*t*.†Predictive equation for call to physician: Logit=−2.867+0.315×(score at the time

*t*)−0.072×(score at admission)−0.016×(time*t*); probability of call to physician=1/(1+exp(−Logit)).‡Predictive equation for call to physician: Logit=−2.630+0.448×(score at the time

*t*)−0.101×(score at admission)−0.017×(time*t*); probability of call to physician=1/(1+exp(−Logit)).§Predictive equation for call to physician: Logit=−3.033+0.263×(score at the time

*t*)−0.058×(score at admission)−0.015×(time*t*); probability of call to physician=1/(1+exp(−Logit)).AUC, area under the receiver-operating curve; Bedside PEWS, Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System; NPV, negative predictive value; PAWS, Paediatric Advanced Warning Score; PEWS, Paediatric Early Warning Score; PPV, positive predictive value.