Performance of clinical prediction models with high/low-risk prediction
| Clinical prediction model | SBI (%) | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | AUC | LR+ (95% CI) | LR− (95% CI) |
| Bachur and Harper36 (≤3 months) | ||||||
| Derivation cohort (n=5279) | 7.1 | 0.82 (0.78 to 0.86) | 0.76 (0.75 to 0.77) | 0.79 | 3.49 (3.26 to 3.74) | 0.23 (0.19 to 0.29) |
| Validation | ||||||
| Spain <3 months (n=2148) | 16.4 | 0.94 (0.90 to 0.96) | 0.80 (0.78 to 0.82) | 0.87 | 4.65 (4.22 to 5.12) | 0.08 (0.05 to 0.12) |
| France <3 months (n=2204) | 17.2 | 0.59 (0.54 to 0.64) | 0.86 (0.85 to 0.88) | 0.73 | 4.35 (3.77 to 5.02) | 0.47 (0.42 to 0.53) |
| The Netherlands <3 months (n=159) | 15.1 | 0.71 (0.51 to 0.85) | 0.83 (0.76 to 0.89) | 0.77 | 4.23 (2.68 to 6.67) | 0.35 (0.19 to 0.66) |
| The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766) | 9.8 | 0.82 (0.72 to 0.89) | 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80) | 0.80 | 3.68 (3.14 to 4.31) | 0.23 (0.14 to 0.37) |
| Van den Bruel et al 41 (0–16 years) | ||||||
| Derivation cohort (n=3981) | 0.8 | 0.97 (0.83 to 0.99) | 0.89 (0.88 to 0.90) | 0.93 | 8.42 (7.56 to 9.38) | 0.04 (0.00 to 0.25) |
| Validation | ||||||
| Spain <3 months (n=2148) | 16.4 | 0.11 (0.08 to 0.14) | 0.94 (0.93 to 0.95) | 0.53 | 1.77 (1.25 to 2.52) | 0.95 (0.92 to 0.99) |
| France <3 months (n=2204) | 17.2 | 0.48 (0.43 to 0.53) | 0.63 (0.61 to 0.65) | 0.56 | 1.31 (1.16 to 1.47) | 0.82 (0.74 to 0.91) |
| The Netherlands <3 months (n=159) | 15.1 | 0.46 (0.28 to 0.65) | 0.64 (0.56 to 0.72) | 0.55 | 0.84 (0.57 to 1.24) | 0.84 (0.57 to 1.24) |
| The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766) | 9.8 | 0.53 (0.42 to 0.64) | 0.56 (0.52 to 0.59) | 0.55 | 1.21 (0.97 to 1.52) | 0.83 (0.65 to 1.07) |
| Galetto-Lacour et al 38 (7 days to 3 years) | ||||||
| Derivation cohort (n=135) | 26.7 | 0.94 (0.82 to 0.99) | 0.81 (0.72 to 0.88) | 0.88 | 4.92 (3.26 to 7.43) | 0.07 (0.02 to 0.27) |
| Validation | ||||||
| Spain <3 months (n=2148) | 16.4 | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.65) | 0.97 (0.96 to 0.97) | 0.79 | 17.59 (13.55 to 22.84) | 0.42 (0.37 to 0.47) |
| France <3 months (n=2204) | 17.2 | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.65) | 0.95 (0.94 to 0.96) | 0.78 | 12.38 (9.95 to 15.42) | 0.42 (0.37 to 0.48) |
| The Netherlands <3 months (n=159) | 15.1 | 0.48 (0.3 to 0.67) | 0.95 (0.89 to 0.97) | 0.72 | 9.06 (3.98 to 20.62) | 0.55 (0.37 to 0.81) |
| The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766) | 9.8 | 0.70 (0.59 to 079) | 0.90 (0.88 to 0.92) | 0.80 | 7.02 (5.37 to 9.18) | 0.33 (0.23 to 0.47) |
| Thompson et al 39 (3 months to 16 years) | ||||||
| Derivation cohort (n=527) | 44.7 | 0.80 (0.75 to 0.85) | 0.39 (0.34 to 0.44) | 0.60 | 1.3 (1.2 to 1.5) | 0.5 (0.4 to 0.7) |
| Validation | ||||||
| Spain <3 months (n=2148) | 16.4 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| France <3 months (n=2204) | 17.2 | 0.61 (0.56 to 0.66) | 0.44 (0.42 to 0.46) | 0.53 | 1.09 (1.00 to 1.20) | 0.88 (0.77 to 1.01) |
| The Netherlands <3 months (n=159) | 15.1 | 0.58 (0.39 to 0.76) | 0.48 (0.40 to 0.57) | 0.53 | 1.12 (0.77 to 1.64) | 0.87 (0.52 to 1.43) |
| The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766) | 9.8 | 0.63 (0.51 to 0.73) | 0.47 (0.44 to 0.51) | 0.55 | 1.19 (0.99 to 1.44) | 0.79 (0.58 to 1.07) |
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; LR, likelihood ratio; NA, not applicable because of missing ≥2/3 of the required variables; SBI, serious bacterial infections.