Table 4

Performance of clinical prediction models with continuous risk prediction

CPMSBI (%)Calibration slope (SE)AUC (95% CI)
Bleeker et al 37 (1 month to 3 years)
Derivation cohort (n=381)25.10.86 (0.82 to 0.90)
Validation
 Spain <3 months (n=2148)16.42.95 (2.81–3.09)0.94 (0.93 to 0.96)
 France <3 months (n=2204)17.21.15 (0.07)0.80 (0.77 to 0.82)
 The Netherlands <3 months (n=159)15.10.97 (0.48–1.46)0.78 (0.69 to 0.87)
 The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766)9.81.09 (0.84–1.34)0.82 (0.77 to 0.87)
Brent et al 40 (1 month to 15 years)
Derivation cohort (n=1951)3.80.77 (0.71 to 0.83)
Validation
 Spain <3 months (n=2148)16.4NANA
 France <3 months (n=2204)17.20.35 (0.11)0.56 (0.53 to 0.59)
 The Netherlands <3 months (n=159)15.10.45 (0.13–1.02)0.59 (0.46 to 0.72)
 The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766)9.80.08 (0.18–0.34)0.53 (0.46 to 0.60)
Craig et al 18 (<5 years)
Derivation cohort (n=15 781)7.2
   Pneumonia3.40.84 (0.83 to 0.86)
   UTI3.40.80 (0.78 to 0.82)
   Bacteraemia0.40.88 (0.84 to 0.92)
Validation
 Spain <3 months (n=2148)16.4NANA
 France <3 months (n=2204)17.2
   Pneumonia2.00.74 (0.12)0.74 (0.67 to 0.82)
   UTI14.5−0.00 (0.00)0.47 (0.44 to 0.51)
   Bacteraemia0.70.30 (0.20)0.60 (0.46 to 0.75)
 The Netherlands (n=925)10.7NANA
Nijman et al 17 (1 month to 16 years)
Derivation cohort (n=2717)12.6
   Pneumonia6.30.81 (0.73 to 0.88)
   Other SBI6.30.86 (0.79 to 0.92)
Validation pneumonia
 Spain <3 months (n=2148)0.2NANA
 France <3 months (n=2204)2.00.92 (0.18)0.72 (0.65 to 0.79)
 The Netherlands <3 months (n=159)2.51.50 (0.35–2.65)0.86 (0.67 to 1.00)
 The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766)2.11.38 (0.89–1.87)0.89 (0.83 to 0.95)
Validation other SBI
 Spain <3 months (n=2148)16.2NANA
 France <3 months (n=2204)15.20.86 (0.08)0.77 (0.74 to 0.80)
 The Netherlands <3 months (n=159)12.50.56 (0.19–0.93)0.68 (0.55 to 0.80)
 The Netherlands 3–12 months (n=766)7.70.84 (0.61–1.07)0.82 (0.76 to 0.87)
  • AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CPM, clinical prediction model; NA, not applicable because of missing ≥2/3 of the required variables; SBI, serious bacterial infections; UTI, urinary tract infection.