Table 1

Overview of selected clinical prediction models*

CPMSettingCohortAgeChildren (n)Serious bacterial infections (%)Statistical modelCPM variables
High/low-risk prediction
Bachur and Harper36 SecondaryFever ≥38°C≤3 months52797.1CARTAge; temperature; positive urine analysis; white cell count
Van den Bruel et al 41 PrimaryAcute illness0–16 years39810.8CARTAge; temperature; clinician’s instinct something is wrong; dyspnoea; diarrhoea
Galetto-Lacour et al 38 SecondaryFWS ≥38°C7 days to 3 years20226.7MLRMUrine dipstick analysis; PCT; CRP
Thompson et al 39 SecondaryAcute infection3 months to 16 years52715.4High/lowTemperature; oxygen saturation; tachypnoea; tachycardia
Continuous risk prediction
Bleeker et al 37 SecondaryFWS ≥38°C1 month to 3 years38125.1MLRMIll clinical appearance; poor peripheral circulation; chest wall retractions; tachypnoea; duration of fever; history of vomiting; C-reactive protein; white cell count; positive urine analysis
Brent et al 40 SecondaryAcute infection1 month to 15 years19513.8MLRMTemperature; developmental delay; risk factor for infection (comorbidity); state variation; capillary refill time; hydration status; respiratory rate; hypoxia
Craig et al 18 SecondaryFever ≥38°C<5 years15 7817.2MLRMAge; temperature; general appearance; fluid intake; capillary refill time; chest crackles; chronic disease; elevated heart rate; focal bacterial infection; bulging fontanelle; crying; pneumococcal vaccine; rash; breathing difficulty; felt hot; cough; infectious contacts; male; urinary symptoms; meningococcal vaccine; respiratory symptoms; elevated respiratory rate; diarrhoea; wheeze; abnormal ear, nose and throat signs; abnormal chest sounds
Nijman et al 17 SecondaryFever ≥38.5°C1 month to 16 years271712.6MLRMAge; temperature; sex; duration fever; prolonged capillary refill; chest wall retractions; Ill appearance; oxygen saturation; respiratory rate; heart rate; C-reactive protein
  • *See for more detail: online supplemental information 6.

  • CART, Classification and regression tree; CPM, clinical prediction model; CRP, C-reactive protein; FWS, fever without a source; MLRM, multivariable logistic regression model; PCT, procalcionine.