Clinical outcomes parameters and distributions used in the PSA
| Parameter | Mean probability or percent (%) | 95% CI probability or percent (%) | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinical outcomes | ||||
| Neurosurgical injury | 0.0053 | 0.0033 to 0.0085 | β | 8 |
| Non-neurosurgical injury | 0.0710 | 0.0626 to 0.0805 | β | 8 |
| Neurosurgical lesion: GOS outcomes after immediate intervention | 10–14 | |||
| GOS 5 | 81.0 | 74.7 to 86.1 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 4 | 9.3 | 5.6 to 13.9 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 3 | 3.2 | 1.2 to 6.3 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 2 | 2.7 | 0.9 to 5.5 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 1 | 3.8 | 1.6 to 7.9 | Dirichlet | |
| Neurosurgical lesion: GOS outcomes after late intervention | 14 | |||
| GOS 5 | 57.0 | 7.3 to 87.5 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 4 | 6.8 | 0.8 to 12.4 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 3 | 12.0 | 0.9 to 38.2 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 2 | 9.9 | 0.7 to 33.2 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 1 | 14.3 | 1.1 to 43.1 | Dirichlet | |
| Non-neurosurgical lesion: GOS outcomes after immediate intervention | 9 | |||
| GOS 5 | 81.2 | 73.2 to 87.2 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 4 | 11.1 | 6.6 to 18.1 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 3 | 6.8 | 3.5 to 12.9 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 2 | 0 | 0 to 3.2 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 1 | 0.9 | 0.2 to 4.7 | Dirichlet | |
| Non-neurosurgical lesion: GOS outcomes after late intervention | 9 | |||
| GOS 5 | 55.9 | 7.2 to 85.8 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 4 | 8.2 | 1.0 to 15.7 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 3 | 27.6 | 2.1 to 74.1 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 2 | 2.6 | 0 to 15.8 | Dirichlet | |
| GOS 1 | 5.4 | 0.2 to 24.7 | Dirichlet | |
For probabilities of each strategies sensitivity and specificity see table 1.
GOS, Glasgow Outcome Score; PSA, probabilistic sensitivity analysis.