Table 5

Univariate sensitivity analysis to key parameters—health provider perspective

InfantCatch-upAdolescent
*QALY loss: negative benefit of vaccination.
†90% CrI of the distribution described in table A1.
Base caseQALY Loss*QALY Loss£17673
Vaccine and epidemiological parameters
Vaccine efficacy
    Best caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£24755
    Worst case£11327£10181£8172
Vaccine coverage
    50% infants, 50% childrenQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£22841
    95% infants, 90% childrenQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£16837
Physician visits per case of varicella
    Lower bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£19566
    Upper bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£17717
Rate of hospitalisation and length of stay
    Any ICD fieldQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£18021
Summary outcomes
Case fatality ratio of varicella
    Lower bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£21126
    Upper bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£11129
Case fatality ratio of zoster
    Lower bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£17454
    Upper bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£17801
QALY of varicella
    Lower bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£46323
    Upper bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£9582
QALY of zoster
    Lower bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£12630
    Upper bound 90% CrI†QALY LOSSQALY LOSSQALY LOSS
Costs
Cost per vaccine course
    −25% base caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£13081
    +25% base caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£22266
Cost per consultation
    −25% base caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£18680
    +25% base caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£16667
Cost per inpatient day
    −25% base caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£18004
    +25% base caseQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£17306
Prior history of varicella
    Sensitivity
        90%QALY LOSS£19047
        99%QALY LOSS£11048
    Specificity
        50%QALY LOSS£28058
        80%QALY LOSS£14463
Model and methodological assumption
Duration of immunity to zoster after exposure to VZV
    7 years (lower bound 95% CI)£9396£10449£7679
    11 years (lower bound 75% CI)QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£11421
    41 years (upper bound 95% CI)QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£31258
Discount rate
    Benefits 6%, costs 6%QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£74511
    Benefits 3%, costs 6%QALY LOSSQALY LOSS£11049
    Benefits 0%, costs 6%£6249£16933£1579
    Benefits 0%, costs 3%£10214£23289£2521
    Benefits 0%, costs 0%£19327£16511£5228
Time scale
    30 yearsQALY LOSSQALY LOSS£29988