Univariate sensitivity analysis to key parameters—health provider perspective
| Infant | Catch-up | Adolescent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| *QALY loss: negative benefit of vaccination. | |||
| †90% CrI of the distribution described in table A1. | |||
| Base case | QALY Loss* | QALY Loss | £17673 |
| Vaccine and epidemiological parameters | |||
| Vaccine efficacy | |||
| Best case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £24755 |
| Worst case | £11327 | £10181 | £8172 |
| Vaccine coverage | |||
| 50% infants, 50% children | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £22841 |
| 95% infants, 90% children | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £16837 |
| Physician visits per case of varicella | |||
| Lower bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £19566 |
| Upper bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £17717 |
| Rate of hospitalisation and length of stay | |||
| Any ICD field | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £18021 |
| Summary outcomes | |||
| Case fatality ratio of varicella | |||
| Lower bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £21126 |
| Upper bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £11129 |
| Case fatality ratio of zoster | |||
| Lower bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £17454 |
| Upper bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £17801 |
| QALY of varicella | |||
| Lower bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £46323 |
| Upper bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £9582 |
| QALY of zoster | |||
| Lower bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £12630 |
| Upper bound 90% CrI† | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS |
| Costs | |||
| Cost per vaccine course | |||
| −25% base case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £13081 |
| +25% base case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £22266 |
| Cost per consultation | |||
| −25% base case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £18680 |
| +25% base case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £16667 |
| Cost per inpatient day | |||
| −25% base case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £18004 |
| +25% base case | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £17306 |
| Prior history of varicella | |||
| Sensitivity | |||
| 90% | QALY LOSS | £19047 | |
| 99% | QALY LOSS | £11048 | |
| Specificity | |||
| 50% | QALY LOSS | £28058 | |
| 80% | QALY LOSS | £14463 | |
| Model and methodological assumption | |||
| Duration of immunity to zoster after exposure to VZV | |||
| 7 years (lower bound 95% CI) | £9396 | £10449 | £7679 |
| 11 years (lower bound 75% CI) | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £11421 |
| 41 years (upper bound 95% CI) | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £31258 |
| Discount rate | |||
| Benefits 6%, costs 6% | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £74511 |
| Benefits 3%, costs 6% | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £11049 |
| Benefits 0%, costs 6% | £6249 | £16933 | £1579 |
| Benefits 0%, costs 3% | £10214 | £23289 | £2521 |
| Benefits 0%, costs 0% | £19327 | £16511 | £5228 |
| Time scale | |||
| 30 years | QALY LOSS | QALY LOSS | £29988 |