Table 4

Eighty year discounted (3%) varicella and zoster health outcomes and costs saved from the various immunisation options

Base(90% CrI)Base(90% CrI)Base(90% CrI)
A minus sign implies extra cases or costs.
*Base case is the minimum or maximum value of the parameter’s distribution.
Health outcomes avoided
    Cases (millions)14.615.71.9
    GP consultations (millions)8.0(6.6 to *)8.7(7.1 to *)1.5(1.0 to *)
    Hospitalisations (thousands)46.9(* to 58.6)51.9(* to 65.3)10.5(* to 12.6)
    Deaths22(−23 to 126)199(109 to 296)128(111 to 210)
    Life-years saved (thousands)
    QALYs saved (thousands)80.288.518.6
    Cases (millions)−0.6−0.7−0.1
    GP consultations (millions)−1.1−1.3−0.1
    Hospitalisations (thousands)−15.5(−31.1 to *)−18.4(−37.5 to *)−1.5(−2.9 to *)
    Deaths−444(−550 to −336)−526(−650 to −393)−41(−51 to −31)
    Life-years saved (thousands)−4.1−4.9−0.4
    QALYs saved (thousands)−134.6−145.7−11.0
Overall VZV disease
    Life-years saved (thousands)10.0(7.7 to 16.0)12.5(11.2 to 21.5)7.0(6.0 to 11.3)
    QALYs saved (thousands)−54.4(−155.6 to −44.1)−67.2(−186.9 to −40.6)7.6(−1.0 to 13.2)
Costs (£million)
Vaccine costs524(405 to 644)698(557 to 863)183(138 to 240)
Direct medical costs prevented
    GP consultations134(88 to 146)141(90 to 152)30(17 to 31)
    Hospitalisations−5(−72 to −1)−10(−84 to −4)10(5 to 13)
    Total NHS costs prevented14715452
Work loss and household expenditures prevented111(−83 to 673)271(11 to 849)293(201 to 355)
Total societal costs prevented258425344