Eighty year discounted (3%) varicella and zoster health outcomes and costs saved from the various immunisation options
| Infant | Catch-up | Adolescent | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | (90% CrI) | Base | (90% CrI) | Base | (90% CrI) | |
| A minus sign implies extra cases or costs. | ||||||
| *Base case is the minimum or maximum value of the parameter’s distribution. | ||||||
| Health outcomes avoided | ||||||
| Varicella | ||||||
| Cases (millions) | 14.6 | 15.7 | 1.9 | |||
| GP consultations (millions) | 8.0 | (6.6 to *) | 8.7 | (7.1 to *) | 1.5 | (1.0 to *) |
| Hospitalisations (thousands) | 46.9 | (* to 58.6) | 51.9 | (* to 65.3) | 10.5 | (* to 12.6) |
| Deaths | 22 | (−23 to 126) | 199 | (109 to 296) | 128 | (111 to 210) |
| Life-years saved (thousands) | 14.2 | 17.4 | 7.4 | |||
| QALYs saved (thousands) | 80.2 | 88.5 | 18.6 | |||
| Zoster | ||||||
| Cases (millions) | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.1 | |||
| GP consultations (millions) | −1.1 | −1.3 | −0.1 | |||
| Hospitalisations (thousands) | −15.5 | (−31.1 to *) | −18.4 | (−37.5 to *) | −1.5 | (−2.9 to *) |
| Deaths | −444 | (−550 to −336) | −526 | (−650 to −393) | −41 | (−51 to −31) |
| Life-years saved (thousands) | −4.1 | −4.9 | −0.4 | |||
| QALYs saved (thousands) | −134.6 | −145.7 | −11.0 | |||
| Overall VZV disease | ||||||
| Life-years saved (thousands) | 10.0 | (7.7 to 16.0) | 12.5 | (11.2 to 21.5) | 7.0 | (6.0 to 11.3) |
| QALYs saved (thousands) | −54.4 | (−155.6 to −44.1) | −67.2 | (−186.9 to −40.6) | 7.6 | (−1.0 to 13.2) |
| Costs (£million) | ||||||
| Vaccine costs | 524 | (405 to 644) | 698 | (557 to 863) | 183 | (138 to 240) |
| Direct medical costs prevented | ||||||
| GP consultations | 134 | (88 to 146) | 141 | (90 to 152) | 30 | (17 to 31) |
| Hospitalisations | −5 | (−72 to −1) | −10 | (−84 to −4) | 10 | (5 to 13) |
| VZIG | 18 | 23 | 11 | |||
| Total NHS costs prevented | 147 | 154 | 52 | |||
| Work loss and household expenditures prevented | 111 | (−83 to 673) | 271 | (11 to 849) | 293 | (201 to 355) |
| Total societal costs prevented | 258 | 425 | 344 | |||