Predictive models using minimal number of independently predictive variables for age and ALRI specific diagnoses
| Predictive models | Odds ratio (95% CI) | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Area under ROC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Children 1–60 months with ALRI | ||||||
| Model 1 | 4.3 (2.2–8.7) | 81.9 | 49.0 | 82.4 | 48.1 | 0.65 |
| RR >60 or | p<0.001 | |||||
| Cyanosis or | ||||||
| Not feeding | ||||||
| Model 2 | 5.2 (2.6–10.4) | 83.2 | 51.0 | 83.2 | 51.0 | 0.67 |
| RR >60 or | p<0.001 | |||||
| Cyanosis or | ||||||
| Reduced activity | ||||||
| Children 1–60 months, no ALRI | ||||||
| Model 1 | 6.7 (2.5–18.1) | 82.8 | 58.2 | 46.8 | 88.5 | 0.71 |
| p<0.001 | ||||||
| Model 2 | 2.1 (0.9–4.9) | 71.4 | 45.6 | 36.7 | 78.3 | 0.59 |
| p=0.09 | ||||||
| Neonates, all diagnostic categories | ||||||
| Model 1 | 3.9 (1.5–10.5) | 89.1 | 32.3 | 50.5 | 79.3 | 0.61 |
| p=0.007 | ||||||
| Model 2 | 5.0 (2.1–11.6) | 83.6 | 49.3 | 55.4 | 80.0 | 0.66 |
| p<0.001 | ||||||
| Model 3 | 7.3 (3.3–16.4) | 78.2 | 67 | 64.2 | 80.3 | 0.73 |
| RR <30 or | p<0.0001 | |||||
| Cyanosis or | ||||||
| Reduced activity | ||||||
| Model 4 | 6.2 (2.6–14.5) | 83.6 | 54.8 | 58.2 | 81.6 | 0.69 |
| RR >70, <30 or | p<0.001 | |||||
| Cyanosis or | ||||||
| Reduced activity | ||||||
| Model 5 | 8.0 (3.5–18.0) | 78.2 | 69.0 | 66.2 | 80.3 | 0.74 |
| Cyanosis or | ||||||
| Reduced activity | ||||||