Table 3

Calibration across diagnostic categories and severity of illness bands

Diagnostic group		Bands of death probability
Diagnostic group		<1%	1% to <5%	5% to <15%	15% to <30%	30% +	Total
Respiratory
Expected deaths	1.01	9.49	36.08	20.07	28.04	94.69
Actual deaths	1	3	16	13	17	50
n	139	385	409	97	56	1086
Cardiac
Expected deaths	2.79	37.54	50.43	47.53	121.79	260.07
Actual deaths	2	44	50	38	73	207
n	359	1718	528	229	229	3063
Neonatal
Expected deaths	0.12	3.16	15.63	19.97	18.69	57.57
Actual deaths	0	0	6	14	13	33
n	20	122	150	99	33	424
Postoperative
Expected deaths	0.95	4.33	5.90	2.15	1.77	15.10
Actual deaths	0	3	2	1	1	7
n	189	196	72	10	5	472
Accident/trauma
Expected deaths	0.34	5.85	8.05	3.67	14.62	32.54
Actual deaths	0	5	15	6	19	45
n	45	173	114	16	28	376
Neurological
Expected deaths	0.73	8.01	19.74	12.11	30.49	71.09
Actual deaths	2	8	11	14	23	58
n	109	295	245	60	58	767
Miscellaneous
Expected deaths	0.95	9.37	27.14	22.49	68.85	128.81
Actual deaths	2	17	46	43	69	177
n	145	390	309	106	115	1065
Total
Expected deaths	6.90	77.77	162.97	127.98	284.25	659.87
Actual deaths	7	80	146	129	215	577
n	1006	3279	1827	617	524	7253