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Predicting severe motor impairment in preterm children at age 5 years
  1. Anne Synnes1,
  2. Peter J Anderson2,3,
  3. Ruth E Grunau1,
  4. Deborah Dewey4,
  5. Diane Moddemann5,
  6. Win Tin6,
  7. Peter G Davis3,
  8. Lex W Doyle2,3,
  9. Gary Foster7,
  10. May Khairy8,
  11. Chukwuma Nwaesei9,
  12. Barbara Schmidt7,10
  13. on behalf of the CAP Trial Investigator group
    1. 1Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, and Child and Family Research Institute, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
    2. 2Clinical Sciences, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
    3. 3Departments of Obstetrics and Gynaecology and Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
    4. 4Alberta Children's Hospital Research Institute for Child and Maternal Health and Departments of Pediatrics and Community Health Services, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
    5. 5Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
    6. 6Department of Paediatrics, James Cook University Hospital, Middlesbrough, UK
    7. 7Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
    8. 8McGill University Health Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
    9. 9Windsor Regional Hospital, Windsor, Ontario, Canada
    10. 10Division of Neonatology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
    1. Correspondence to Dr Anne Synnes, BC Women's Hospital and Health Centre, Room 1R13, 4500 Oak Street, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6N 3N1; asynnes{at}


    Objective To determine whether the ability to predict severe motor impairment at age 5 years improves between birth and 18 months.

    Design Ancillary study of the Caffeine for Apnea of Prematurity Trial.

    Setting and Patients International cohort of very low birth weight children who were assessed sequentially from birth to 5 years.

    Outcome Measures Severe motor impairment was defined as a score <5th percentile on the Movement Assessment Battery of Children (MABC), or inability to complete the MABC because of cerebral palsy. Multivariable logistic regression cumulative risk models used four sets of predictor variables: early neonatal risk factors, risk factors at 36 weeks’ postmenstrual age, risk factors at a corrected age of 18 months, and sociodemographic variables. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was generated for each model, and the four ROC curves were compared to determine if the addition of the new set of predictors significantly increased the area under the curve (AUC).

    Results Of 1469 children, 291 (19.8%) had a severe motor impairment at 5 years. The AUC increased from 0.650 soon after birth, to 0.718 (p<0.001) at 36 weeks’ postmenstrual age, and to 0.797 at 18 months (p<0.001). Sociodemographic variables did not significantly improve the AUC (AUC=0.806; p=0.07).

    Conclusions Prediction of severe motor impairment at 5 years of age using a cumulative risk model improves significantly from birth to 18 months of age in children with birth weights between 500 g and 1250 g.

    Trial registration number number NCT00182312.

    • Neurodevelopment
    • Neonatology
    • Outcomes research

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