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Predicting adult metabolic syndrome from childhood body mass index: Follow-up of the New Delhi birth cohort
  1. Harshpal Singh Sachdev (hpssachdev{at}
  1. Sitaram Bhartia Institute, India
    1. Clive Osmond (co{at}
    1. MRC Epidemiology Resource Centre, United Kingdom
      1. Caroline Fall (chdf{at}
      1. MRC Epidemiology Resource Centre, United Kingdom
        1. Ramakrishnan Lakshmy
        1. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, India
          1. Siddharth Ramji
          1. Maulana Azad Medical College, India
            1. Sushant K Biswas
            1. Indian Council of Medical Research, India
              1. Dorairaj Prabhakaran
              1. Centre for Chronic Disease Control, India
                1. Nikhil Tandon
                1. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, India
                  1. K Srinath Reddy
                  1. Public Health Foundation of India, India
                    1. David JP Barker
                    1. MRC Epidemiology Resource Centre, United Kingdom
                      1. Santosh K Bhargava
                      1. Sunder Lal Jain Hospital, India


                        Objectives: To assess whether serial measurements of childhood body mass index (BMI) give clinically useful predictions of the risk of developing adult metabolic syndrome and impaired glucose tolerance or type 2 diabetes.

                        Design/setting: Follow-up of a community-based birth cohort in Delhi, India.

                        Participants: 1,492 men and women aged 26-32 years whose BMI was recorded 6-monthly throughout childhood.

                        Main outcome measures: The predictive value of childhood BMI for adult metabolic syndrome (MS) defined using waist circumference, blood pressure and fasting glucose, triglyceride and HDL-cholesterol concentrations, and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and diabetes (DM) diagnosed by oral glucose tolerance tests.

                        Results: Twenty-five percent of subjects had MS and 15% had IGT/DM. Both outcomes were associated with greater childhood BMI gain (MS: OR 1.63 [95% CI 1.44 to 1.85]; IGT/DM: 1.39 [1.20 to 1.60] per unit increase in within-cohort BMI SD-score between 5-14 years). Best predictions of adult disease were obtained using a combined test comprising i) any increase in BMI SD-score between 5-14 years and ii) a BMI SD-score >0 at 14 years (MS: sensitivity 45%, specificity 78%; IGT/DM: 37%, 73%). Likelihood ratios were low (MS: 1.4-2.0; IGT/DM: 1.2-1.4). A single high BMI measurement at 14 years (overweight or obese, International Obesity Task Force criteria) was highly specific but insensitive (MS: sensitivity 7%, specificity 97%; IGT/DM: 8%, 97%). Charts for plotting BMI SD-scores through childhood were produced.

                        Conclusions: Serial measurements of childhood BMI give useful predictions of adult risk and could guide advice to children and parents on preventing later disease.

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