Objective To assess the risk factors for developing Henoch–Schönlein purpura nephritis (HSN) and to determine the time period when renal involvement is unlikely after the initial disease onset.

Design A prospective study of 223 paediatric patients to examine renal manifestations of Henoch–Schönlein purpura (HSP). The patient's condition was monitored with five outpatient visits to the research centre and urine dipstick testing at home.

Results HSN occurred in 102/223 (46%) patients, consisting of isolated haematuria in 14%, isolated proteinuria in 9%, both haematuria and proteinuria in 56%, nephrotic-range proteinuria in 20% and nephrotic-nephritic syndrome in 1%. The patients who developed HSN were significantly older than those who did not (8.2±3.8 vs 6.2±3.0 years, p<0.001, CI for the difference 1.1 to 2.9). Nephritis occurred a mean of 14 days after HSP diagnosis, and within 1 month in the majority of cases. The risk of developing HSN after 2 months was 2%. Prednisone prophylaxis did not affect the timing of the appearance of nephritis. The risk factors for developing nephritis were age over 8 years at onset (OR 2.7, p=0.002, CI 1.4 to 5.1), abdominal pain (OR 2.1, p=0.017, CI 1.1 to 3.7) and recurrence of HSP disease (OR 3.1, p=0.002, CI 1.5 to 6.3). Patients with two or three risk factors developed nephritis in 63% and 87% of cases, respectively. Laboratory tests or blood pressure measurement at onset did not predict the occurrence of nephritis.

Conclusion The authors recommend weekly home urine dipstick analyses for the first 2 months for patients with HSP. Patients with nephritis should be followed up for more than 6 months as well as the patients with HSP recurrence.