Background and aims Systemic Lupus Eryhthematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease that follows a relapsing and remitting course. It carries a highly variable prognosis, depending on clinical and laboratory findings. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the clinical presentation and predictors for flare at 6 months of SLE patients admitted in our refferal centre.
Methods We performed a unicentric longitudinal retrospective study on a group of 20 patients diagnosed with SLE between 1stFebruary 2011-1st February 2017. The including criteria were diagnosis of SLE, clinical and laboratory data available over a period of at least 6 months of follow-up. TheSystemic Lupus Eryhthematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI 2K) score, an increase or decrease of more than 3 points, was used to assess the presence of flare or the remission, respectively.
Results Median age at diagnosis was 14.54 yo [13.02;15.81], 20% were boys. Median follow-up was 24 months [13.5; 24.75]. Out of 56 admissions studied we encountered 17 flares. Neurological involvement was present in 16 cases. In logistical multivariable regression analysis the determinant for flare over a 6 months period were neurological symptoms, explaining up to 28% of flare variability.
Conclusions In our study only the presence of neurological involvement, but not immunologic, laboratory findings or other clinical manifestation, was associated with the presence of flare in the next 6 months. However, the relatively short period of observation and the small number of patients studied hamper a more accurate evaluation of the prognostic markers.
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