Leading article
Derivation versus validation
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
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Introduction |
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Assessing the probable clinical course of children presenting
to their care is one of the day to day dilemmas facing the practising paediatrician. With accurate prognostication, invasive or expensive treatment may be targeted towards those most likely to benefit. There
is little point in expending vital resources on, or administering invasive treatments to, children who are likely to recover without such
intervention. Children with certain characteristics may tend to do
better or worse than others. For example, younger children or those
with specific clinical signs might be expected to deteriorate more
rapidly. Past experience often acts as a guide for the experienced paediatrician. Algorithms (or prognostic models) can be developed to
provide a means of transferring expert knowledge to the novice. For
example, Apgar scores are routinely used to assess the health of
newborn babies, and APACHE scores can be used as a measure of
prognostication among admissions to paediatric
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